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Just eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.