Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
